The PS3 will remain in third place until late 2014

N4g has attracted gamers of all types and has become the preeminent home for gamers and fanboys of various allegiances.
One of the most pointless, albeit heavily debated, issues on the N4g comments section is the ongoing worldwide sales numbers of PS3 and Xbox360 hardware.

The thesis for this blog is not to instigate hateful retaliation or start a flame war.
Instead, this piece merely hopes to demonstrate, with official Sony and MS data that:

1. Subjective sales surveys such as VGchartz and 'active install base research' are flawed and meaningless
2. The PS3 has indeed outsold the 360 worldwide every year since its release in 2006 according to official data
3. The 360/ps3 gap is officially at 3.5 million
4. The PS3 will not catch the 360 until September 2014 according to official data.

Currently the PS3 is thought to be in third place, with the 360 holding a narrow lead over the ps3 in worldwide sales.
Despite launching a year later, PS3 fans maintain that the ps3 has outsold the 360 every year since launch and is rapidly closing the initial sales gap of almost 9 million consoles.

Curiously, repeated posts on N4g speculate that the ps3 may have even caught the 360 in worldwide sales, citing 'research' on active install bases that reports higher ps3 statistics.

However, in truth these reports are likely flawed in much the same way that VGchartz reports are flawed - both are based on limited samples and subjective inferences. As a consequence, these reports are, at best, merely rumours.
Unfortunately such subjective and meaningless rumours are oft favoured by fanboys, as they lend credence to their fanboy agenda.

Realistically, the only accurate guide to hardware sales come from the financial reports that both Microsoft and Sony make to their investors. In these reports, both companies are required by law to supply performance data to their investors.

Despite the fact that this information is readily available to the N4g community, it is rarely used or accessed.
Most likely, N4g users do not know where to look, or do not like the information as it does not fit their agenda.
In the interest of objectivity, I have provided the relevant links:

http://www.microsoft.com/in...
http://scei.co.jp/corporate...

What is particularly important to consider, is that the information in these links is required to be accurate by law.
Thus, we can be assured that this information represents the lawfully required best practice of quoting hardware sales. Indeed, it is infinitely preferable to any other 'research' or 'survey' that is mistakenly quoted by the community.

The only caveat to this official information is the 'lag' introduced by the retrospective nature of accounting in financial quarters. That is, as soon as the information is published it is effectively 'out-of-date' until the next financial report.
Nevertheless, it provides and effective measure that is second to none.

Using this official company data, we are readily able to see that the ps3 has marginally outsold the 360 worldwide since 2006.
Sorry, 360 fans, it is true.

The most recent official reports put the ps3 at 51.3 million sold, while the 360 is at 55.8 million sold.
As can be seen in the reports, in the 5 years that the ps3 has been available, it has closed the original gap of 9 million by only 5.5 million, to 3.5 million.
None too shabby!
PS3 fans are right to point this out - much to the chagrin of 360 fans that care about sales.

Astoundingly, however, this is where Ps3 fanboys get stuck.
They fail to consider the implication of the long term sales that have manifested to date.

On closer inspection, the average rate of growth is too low!
Over 5 years, the ps3 has gained 5.5 million in total sales on the 360, representing an average yearly gain of 1.1 million or less.
Using this long term sales rate, we can estimate at what date the PS3 will finally be even with the 360 in worldwide sales.

The official ps3/360 gap is 3.5 million today.
Thus, to close this gap, assuming the ps3 continues to outsell the 360 in the exact same way it has done for 5 years, will take until September 2014.

Proof:
Sept 2011 Gap = 3.5 million
Sept 2012 Gap = 2.4 million (This year ps3 outsells 360 by 1.1million)
Sept 2013 Gap = 1.3 million (Again, the ps3 outsells 360 by 1.1 million)
Sept 2014 Gap = 0.2 Million (Again, the ps3 outsells 360 by 1.1 million)

As can be seen, when we use the official data, and we make the assumption that the ps3 will continue to outsell the 360 at exactly the same rates as it has done for the last 5 years, we see the ps3 remain in third place until nearly 2015.

Of course, this news will likely anger or even infuriate ps3 fans on N4g.

Nevertheless, the numbers don't lie.
September 2014.
You heard it here first.